About WxDuel

WxDuel compares human weather forecasting accuracy against automated guidance and historical averages.

Every day, millions of people check the weather, but how accurate are those predictions? WxDuel was created to answer a simple question: Who really knows what the weather will do?

Our platform provides an objective, standardized scoring system to track forecast accuracy over time. Whether you are a seasoned meteorologist or a hobbyist, WxDuel gives you the stats to prove your skills.

Benchmark Players

WxDuel includes three automated players to help measure your skills. These "players" participate in every game to provide a consistent standard for comparison:

NBM

Powered by the National Blend of Models. This player uses the raw output from the 13Z NBM cycle to generate its prediction.

NWS

Powered by the National Weather Service digital forecast. The initial forecast is read at 13:30Z, with a final update retrieved at 18:30Z.

Normals

Powered by NOAA Normals (1991-2020). This player uses historical averages, serving as the minimum score to beat.

GFS

Powered by the Global Forecast System. Uses the 00Z raw output from the NOAA GFS model (from the previous evening).

NAM

Powered by the North American Mesoscale (3km) model. Regional high-res guidance using the 12Z cycle.

HRRR

Powered by HRRR. Uses the 12Z high-resolution, rapid refresh model guidance.

GEFS

Powered by GEFS Ensemble Mean. Uses 00Z averaged guidance from 30+ ensemble members.

CMCE

Powered by CMC Ensemble Mean. Uses 00Z averaged guidance from the Canadian ensemble system.

AIGFS

Powered by the AI Global Forecast System. NOAA's new deterministic AI model (00Z run).

AIGEFS

Powered by the AI Global Ensemble Forecast System. Uses the 00Z ensemble mean from NOAA's AI-driven ensemble system.

HGEFS

Powered by the Hybrid Global Ensemble Forecast System. A blended consensus of the physics-based GEFS and the AI-driven AIGEFS ensembles.

NB1 / NB9 (Extremes)

The 10th & 90th Percentiles of the 13Z NBM. These players capture "edge cases" or extreme outlier scenarios (coldest/warmest) from the model blend.

NB5 (Median)

The 50th Percentile of the 13Z NBM. Represents the statistical median, often providing a highly stable forecast.

The Future

WxDuel is currently in Alpha. Development is actively focused on: