How to Play

Overview

WxDuel is a forecasting challenge where participants predict temperatures and precipitation probabilities for selected U.S. cities, comparing their accuracy against standardized benchmarks.

Game Modes

WxDuel offers two distinct forecasting challenges each day. You can participate in one or both.

1. The Short Game

Target: Tomorrow (Day +1)

Test your skill at short-range forecasting. This is a high-precision game where small differences matter.

Forecasts are for the next calendar day.
Example: On Monday, you forecast for Tuesday.
Uses high-resolution models (HRRR, NAM, NBM) for comparison.

2. The Long Game

Target: 6 Days Out (Day +6)

A test of medium-range guidance and pattern recognition. Volatility is higher, and the spread between models is wider.

Forecasts are for 6 days into the future.
Example: On Monday, you forecast for next Sunday.
Competing against global ensembles (GEFS, EPS) and the NBM.

How to Play

Daily Cycle: New games open every day at midnight.
City Selection: Each game features a unique set of 7 U.S. cities chosen to highlight interesting weather.
Enter Forecasts:
- Max Temp: Daytime high (°F).
- Min Temp: Overnight low (°F).
- Precipitation: Will there be ≥ 0.01" of rain/snow? (Yes/No).
Deadlines: All entries must be locked in by 11:59 PM Eastern Time.

Scoring System

Verification is performed the following day using official Preliminary Climate Data from the NWS.

1. Temperature (Mean Absolute Error)

The primary score is the combined absolute error of your temperature forecasts against the observed high and low.

Example: Forecast 75°/50°, Actual 70°/52° = 7.0 Total Error Points (5 + 2).

2. Precipitation (Brier Score)

The Brier Score is used to measure probability accuracy.

Correctly predicting precipitation (or lack thereof) results in a score of 0.0 (Perfect).
Incorrect predictions result in a penalty score up to 1.0.

Rankings & Tiebreakers

Participants are ranked primarily by Temperature Error (lowest to highest). In the event of a tie, the following criteria are applied in order:

Brier Score: The participant with the lower precipitation error score ranks higher.
Submission Time: The forecast submitted earlier (measured by elapsed time since game open) ranks higher.

Disclaimer: All scoring and ranking decisions are final. WxDuel is strictly for entertainment and educational purposes. No fees, payments, or financial contributions are involved.